- Mark Boggett is the CEO the world’s first space tech investment fund, Seraphim Space.
- Boggett believes that 2021 was the year what he calls “New Space” came of age.
- He has made seven specific forecasts on how the space industry will develop this year.
The commercialization of space is no longer reserved for science fiction.
In the relatively recent past, the only experience humans had with space was huge state-run projects such as the international space station and the moon landings of decades gone by.
That has changed though and humanity’s ambitions and technological capability have risen dramatically. Private businesses engaged in space-related economic activity have sprung up all over the world and the new space race is very much on.
Of course, Elon Musk’s SpaceX is the one everyone knows about but the burgeoning industry stretches far beyond this.
Not only is this sector fascinating from a human curiosity perspective, it also has the potential to be highly lucrative for investors.
Mark Boggett, CEO the world's first space tech investment fund Seraphim Space, is one of the world's top experts on the space industry.
Boggett believes that 2021 was the year what he calls "New Space" came of age and became widely accepted as a new investment asset class in both public and private markets.
Here are his seven predictions for the year ahead:
Space momentum continues
"Public interest remains high with mega-rocket launches," Boggett said. "2021 was another record year with $12.4 billion of private capital invested in the space ecosystem, a huge increase of more than 60% from last year. We expect this momentum to continue as space is at an inflection point. Significant new capabilities in satellite communications and Earth Observation are coming online that could disrupt traditional industries and create new ones."
Boggett said his firm believed the launch of new mega-rockets, including NASA's giant moon rocket and SpaceX's next-generation Starship, over the coming year would fuel public enthusiasm for space.
Growing relevance for space companies tackling climate change
New geospatial data and the development of analytics have become increasingly relevant to solving big problems related to climate change, Boggett said. Higher resolution and greater frequency of space data are enabling new applications to monitor and track objects and activities on earth, he said.
"At the same time, companies are rushing to integrate ESG due to growing investor and regulatory pressure. Space data provides powerful tools to help institutions establish a baseline to monitor their operations at scale and track their progress and carbon footprint overtime. Space companies active in climate include Planet, Spire, ICEYE, Tomorrow.io, GHG Sat, Scepter Air and Pixxel SatelliteVu, Cervest, Sust Global and RS Metrics," Boggett said.
Space SPAC pipeline to remain robust
"Although going public via SPACs in 2022 will be more challenging for space companies, we still expect this market to continue to develop with emerging category leaders that have demonstrated solid commercial traction and growth, especially communications and climate related companies."
"Almost all of the nine space companies that went public traded down last year due high shareholder redemptions While the stronger ones are leveraging their position for M&A, we expect the weaker ones to become acquisition targets in the upcoming wave of consolidation."
Cloud tech transforming space
Over the coming year, cloud players will expand their activity in space, Boggett said, noting that Amazon Web Services, the number one cloud player, established a dedicated space unit over a year ago. The company partnered with Seraphim Capital on a space accelerator, he said.
"We see leading cloud players like AWS rapidly transforming the space industry by providing powerful, cost-effective and scalable solutions to accelerate space companies across the ecosystem," he added.
Bogett noted that "graduates" from the Seraphim AWS Space Accelerator such as Ursa Space, HawkEye 360 and LeoLabs had seen dramatic increases in efficiency.
Massive increase in satcom capacity to drive consolidation
"Global satcom capacity is expected to increase by more than five-fold to over 20 Tbps this year, according to Euroconsult, as long-planned High Throughput Satellite (HTS) from major satellite operators ViaSat, Eutelsat and Hughes, SES come on-line. At the same time, new mega-constellations such as Starlink and OneWeb are gearing up for commercial services," Boggett said.
Explosion of 'Earth Observation' data
"Leveraging of fusion of multi-data and multi-sensor to deliver insights," Boggett said. "Like satcom, the Earth Observation (EO) industry is rapidly transforming with new technologies and will see a significant increase in capacity and modalities in the coming year."
"First, Maxar is launching its Legion constellation, more than tripling its capacity. Planet Labs is planning to double its imaging capacity with the launch of 44 SuperDove satellites. We expect to see a significant increase in commercial SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar)."
"Companies like Tommorow.io, SatelliteVu and Pixxel are planning to launch their first EO satellites, making new modality of weather, infrared and hyperspectral data available to the commercial market for the first time," he said.
Rising US and China tension increasing need for leadership
Debris from recent Russian weapons test shows the growing risk of collisions in space as it becomes more congested, Boggett said.
"Last year, China exceeded the US with 56 orbital launches and is jockeying for global leadership and partners to develop the Moon. In the coming year, a new United Nations resolution on "norms of behavior" represents an opportunity for leading space powers to come together and reach consensus to reduce risk in space," he said.
"We expect to see more private sector companies such as LeoLabs, Astroscale and D-Orbit stepping in to fill in the gap and provide services include Space Situational Awareness (SSA) and Space debris removal and in-orbit services," he added.